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The weakness of the euro continues despite higher than expected inflation figures. The Swiss franc and pound sterling are also softening slightly. The dollar, on the other hand, is struggling to boost earnings after a much stronger-than-expected ADP employment. The New Zealand dollar continues to trade as the strongest, pushing up the Australian dollar slightly. The yen is mixed, while the stock markets lack clear direction for the day.
Chris Williamson, the chief economist at IHS Markit, said: The eurozone economy has had a predictably hard start until 2021 … especially in the services sector …. Thus, GDP contraction looks likely in the first quarter, although on current trends it should be moderate compared to the declines observed in the first half of 2020.
However, with measures to contain the virus likely to constrain the eurozone economy in the coming months and possibly in the second quarter, given the slow introduction of the vaccine, the focus will be on the need to maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies for some time in the future, in particular, to prevent further increases in job losses in the hardest-hit industries such as hospitality, tourism, travel, and retail.
CAD Stays Afloat on Steady Oil Price
The Canadian dollar is at the top of the markets this week. A return to risk appetite provides the foundation for growth. Meanwhile, the Kiwi is improving by stronger-than-expected employment data, while the loonie follows the rise in oil prices. The Australian dollar lags on RBA, but the euro continues to trade as the weakest, with a lower outlook in the near term.
An upbeat job report could spur the Canadian dollar, as well as generate more profits linked to higher oil prices. The Canadian dollar has yet to respond to the gradual rise in oil prices as a result of strong compliance by OPEC + countries and optimism about the impact of vaccines on the global economy. CAD could rise now with a belated response.
The Bank of Canada at its January monetary policy meeting left its interest rate at 0.50% and maintained its quantitative easing program at the current pace of asset purchases. The central bank has noted some caution about short-term growth prospects and is now forecasting a contraction in first-quarter GDP growth. However, as the vaccine rolls forward, in addition to fiscal stimulus and higher commodity prices, policymakers expect economic activity to recover in the longer term.
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