AUD/NZD Price Analysis — November 30

The AUD/NZD traded on negative bias in the early European hours on Monday, with both currencies struggling for dominance as they both have favorable factors surrounding them.

Commodities continue to bolster the Aussie, with the daily measure of Australia’s commodity export nearing a 7-year high, as iron ore trades above $125 per tonne.

November was a good month for Australia’s economy as we saw positive data from retail sales and jobs, while border reopening across the country extended more confidence that the RBA easing measures would yield the intended results.

Meanwhile, Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure dropped below expectations in the third quarter of 2020, as data published by the countries statistics bureau (ABS) showed last week. Total new capital expenditure fell by 3% in the September quarter as opposed to the widely expected -1.5%.

In other news, the Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI grew beyond market expectations and came in at 52.1, while Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 56.4 in November. This data release was favorable, particularly for the Kiwi, which was further bolstered by a positive outlook from the recent ANZ Business Confidence of New Zealand.

With fundamental factors favoring both currencies, we turn to technical signals to provide insight into what the AUD/NZD could do in the near-term.

AUD/NZD Value Forecast — November 30

AUD/NZD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: 1.0520, 1.0600, and 1.0650

Demand Levels: 1.0485, 1.0400, and 1.0350

The AUD/NZD has fallen below the 1.0520 line and has failed on several occasions to retake that line. That said, we could expect to see a steady decline in this pair towards the base of our descending channel and subsequently to the 1.0400 area. Only a decisive break above the 1.0520 line can negate the current bearish momentum.

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