Gold Records Worst Monthly Decline in Four Years as Market Mood Remains Positive

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its decline in the early European session on Monday in what can be considered its worst decline in four years. The recent sell-off was triggered by the renewal of investor risk appetite across markets, as the prospects for COVID-19 vaccines revive hopes of a global economic recovery.

So far, the yellow metal has lost about 5.7% cumulatively in November, a record monthly decline since November 2016.

Furthermore, it is believed that the recent slide below the crucial $1800 round figure precipitated a fresh sell-off in the commodity. Market participants are now looking to the congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled to hold later this week. Gold is regarded as a good shield against inflation and fiat debasement.

Meanwhile, analysts at Citibank have readjusted their gold-price predictions for 2021 and their projections for inflows in gold ETF to the downside, as developed economies show decent prospects for recovery.

The analysts noted that net investment into gold ETFs should hit 800 tons in 2020, 75 tons short of their original prediction and 50% lower again next year. Currently, they have adjusted their near-term support target in the non-yielding metal to $1700, painting a grim outlook for gold’s near-term prospects.

However, the analysts at Citibank expect a rally above the $2000 mark in the next three to six months.

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — November 30

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: $1777, $1792, and $1800

Demand Levels: $1764, $1748, and $1718

Our hourly paints an even grimmer picture gold, as the commodity, can be seen barrelling towards the base of our descending channel. At the moment, a fall below the $1764 mark could accelerate gold’s decline and decimate the little prospect remaining for recovery before the end of the year.

That said, only a recovery above the $1800 mark can confirm a renewal of bullish momentum in the XAU/USD.

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