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Based on CoinMetrics’ findings, mounting an attack on Bitcoin could range from $5 billion to $20 billion, whereas targeting Ethereum would necessitate over $34 billion.
A 51% attack arises when either a single miner or a collective group of miners manages over fifty percent of a blockchain network’s hash rate.
In theory, this could empower the attacker to obstruct transactions within the blockchain, manipulate the order of new transactions, and potentially reverse previous transactions (known as “double spending”) by tampering with blockchain data.
Nonetheless, a recent investigation suggests that conducting such attacks is economically impractical given the existing security configurations of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Not Worth the Effort: Assessing the Viability of Attacking Bitcoin and Ethereum
As of December 31, 2023, and based on an Ethereum price of $2,279, a total staked ETH of 28.8 million, and a validator count of 899,840, CoinMetrics’ analysis indicates that an attacker would need around $34.39 billion to carry out a 34% attack on the network.
If this attack were launched on December 31, 2023, it would take the attacker until June 14, 2024, to surpass the 33% threshold required to gain control over the network. Similarly, attacking Bitcoin would present considerable hurdles.
Researchers estimate that the attacker would face production costs exceeding $20 billion, as they would need to manufacture nearly 40 million units of the S9.
By December 2023, employing the most potent ASIC on the market, such as the upcoming Bitmain S21, would amount to approximately $5.6 billion, roughly a quarter of the cost associated with utilizing the S9.
This calculation is derived from a unit price of $2,240 and a projected production volume of 2.5 million machines.
Although this approach is more economical compared to the “naive” method, the study emphasizes that manufacturing at this efficiency and scale would necessitate collaboration with the manufacturer.
Nonetheless, the attacker is likely to face challenges related to the supply chain and potential retaliatory actions.
The research findings indicate that the security protocols of Bitcoin and Ethereum have advanced to a point where the risks and expenses associated with 51% attacks far surpass any potential advantages. 
This suggests that aggressive maneuvers become less enticing when contrasted with alternative approaches such as active participation in the network or abstaining from hostile actions.
Beyond Major Blockchains: Broadening the Scope of 51% Attack Risks
While this evaluation holds validity for prominent blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum, it doesn’t necessarily apply to numerous other networks that have emerged over the past decade.
For instance, Bitcoin SV, a blockchain created through a split from Bitcoin Cash and advocated mainly by entrepreneurs Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright, encountered three separate 51% attack incidents in 2021.
Likewise, the less recognized privacy-focused cryptocurrency Firo, formerly known as Zcoin, underwent a similar ordeal. Even Ethereum Classic didn’t escape the attention of malicious actors.
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