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The growth of the USD/JPY pair from 102.58 resumes today when the pair breaks through 109.35 and has reached 109.81 at the moment. Intraday bias returned to long-term channel resistance at 110.00. A decisive break in this area would have more serious bullish consequences before reaching the 111.71 resistance level. On the other hand, a break of the 108.40 support level is needed to indicate a short-term top. Otherwise, in the case of retreat, the prospects will remain optimistic.
USD/JPY got needed momentum to break north of recent ranges on Friday; The yield on US government bonds, which is admittedly down from earlier highs, showed significant upside potential on Friday, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.68% from around 1.62% overnight levels.
The subsequent widening of the US-Japanese rate differential was the catalyst needed for the dollar/yen to return north of 109.30 and to new yearly highs. As the yield declines, the pair declines in tandem.
A combination of adverse movements in global bond markets (which further exacerbated Japan’s interest rate disadvantage) coupled with a more risky trading attitude (global equities, crude oil markets, and risk-sensitive currencies trade at decent returns at stock prices) puts pressure on the safe yen, so on the day, it is at the bottom of the G10 results table.
The slightly above forecast data on the core consumer price index (Tokyo Core CPI) released last night did not help the yen and showed that the Japanese economy remained in deflation and prices fell 0.1% YoY.
Looking ahead, USD/JPY will have to grapple with rebalancing flows at the end of the quarter early next week and maybe volatile thereafter. But there will also be many important data releases from the US and Japan to watch out for; Japan’s February retail sales data will be released on Tuesday, March ADP US employment data and Japanese industrial production for February will be released on Wednesday, 1Q Japan’s Tankan Manufacturing Index and PMI will be released on Thursday in the ISM manufacturing industry in the US for March, and on Friday, its NFP day in the US (and a Good Friday holiday, so it’s too early to close).
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