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In a turbulent week for the Japanese yen, the currency experienced significant fluctuations, primarily driven by policy decisions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The BoJ’s announcement included a minor adjustment to its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. It maintained its target for the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield at approximately 0% but notably widened the permissible range to 1%. This move was interpreted as dovish, suggesting the BoJ’s reluctance to rush into monetary tightening.
As a result, the yen initially weakened against the US dollar, with USD/JPY breaching the 150.00 mark for the first time in over a year.
Yen Fights Back, Thanks to the US Fed
However, the yen swiftly regained its footing as the Fed surprised markets with a more cautious stance. The central bank decided to leave its benchmark rate at 5.5% and revised its expectations for future rate hikes.
The Fed also acknowledged global risks such as the economic slowdown, trade tensions, and government shutdowns. This prompted a reduction in expectations for further rate hikes, diminishing the US dollar’s appeal and benefiting the yen as a safe-haven asset. USD/JPY reversed its course, concluding the week below the 150.00 threshold.
What This Week Holds for Traders
Looking ahead, this week promises a quieter economic data calendar, but all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s speeches on November 8th and 9th. Powell’s insights on the economy and policy outlook may either affirm or challenge the dovish narrative.
Additionally, developments in the Middle East, particularly Israel-Palestine hostilities, have the potential to trigger risk aversion. The yen, renowned as a traditional safe-haven currency, may see further strength if global uncertainties intensify.
Despite the BoJ’s policy adjustment and the initial strength of the US dollar, the yen has displayed remarkable resilience. Its performance in the coming weeks will continue to hinge on the Fed’s dovish stance and the persistence of global risks. Investors and markets will closely monitor these factors to gauge the yen’s trajectory in this ever-evolving landscape.
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