Wheat Prices Remain Stable on World Markets, Limiting Growth in Ukraine

Wheat prices on global exchanges saw minimal movement last week, with an increase of only 0.4-1%, primarily due to the absence of significant support factors.

Wheat Production and Export Developments

Forecasts predicting precipitation and lower temperatures in the Black Sea region have helped alleviate concerns about potential losses to winter wheat crops in Ukraine and Russia.

In the United States, wheat stocks as of September 1 totaled 54 million tons, a figure 5.9 million tons higher than the previous year. However, this was still below market expectations. U.S. wheat exports for the week fell by 25.7%, amounting to 536.9 thousand tons. Despite this decline, the total exports for the season reached 8.23 million tons, which is 36.16% higher than the pace seen last year.
The European Commission also revised its grain production forecast for the EU in the 2024/25 marketing year, reducing it from 264.5 million to 260.9 million tons. Soft wheat production was adjusted downward by 1.5 million to 114.6 million tons, while durum wheat was lowered to 7.2 million tons.

Global Wheat Futures Performance

December wheat futures prices rose yesterday. In Russia, agencies continued lowering grain harvest forecasts, including for corn and wheat. IKAR revised its wheat production estimate down to 81.8 million tons, while ProZerno adjusted it to 81.6 million tons. As of September 27, Russia harvested 80.9 million tons of wheat from 88% of the area, with rains in Siberia causing delays.

In Ukraine, the export purchase price for milling wheat held steady at 9400-9500 UAH/t ($203-205/t), while the price for feed wheat increased by 100-200 UAH/t to 8900-9100 UAH/t ($190-193/t). The depreciation of the dollar on the interbank market and a rise in supply from producers have constrained further price growth.
As of September 27, Ukraine had exported 5.8 million tons of wheat in the 2024/25 marketing year, an 86% increase compared to the same period last year, with 2 million tons shipped in September alone, double the amount shipped in September 2023.

For nearly 30 years, UkrAgroConsult has developed an extensive database, which now forms the foundation of its AgriSupp platform. This online platform provides market intelligence for grains and oilseeds, offering daily updates on the Black Sea and Danube markets, along with access to analytical reports and historical data.

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