US Dollar Stays Weighed Down by Risk Mood, a Rebound Likely

Following remarks by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the US dollar fell substantially on Friday. Powell stated in July at the Jackson Hole Symposium that policymakers thought it could be appropriate to begin tapering this year, citing progress in employment but also the troubling spread of the Delta variation. He stated, “We will be carefully examining new data and emerging concerns.” A dovish remark that drove markets higher and the dollar lower.

The attention has shifted back to the economic recovery now that Jackson Hole is done. Investors will be watching every data point that can provide insight into the labor market’s recovery and whether pricing pressures will continue to rise. A faster path to significant progress in the labor market could lead to a faster tapering of asset purchases. The August US nonfarm payroll report is likely to show a strong 787,000 jobs, down from the previous month’s 943,000 but still contributing to the route to publicly declaring tapering.

Investors will be watching Wednesday’s ISM report closely, as it could reveal that input costs remain high while inventories continue to shrink. The headline ISM Manufacturing number is predicted to drop from 59.5 to 58.7.

US Payrolls Likely To Slow Substantially

Payrolls probably fell substantially following a 943k surge in July, says a report previewing this week’s key macroeconomic data releases from the United States. This model reflects less aid from the seasonal adjustment process, especially for the public sector, but the underlying dynamic also appears to have faded. This is a signal from Homebase data, even though the number of applications is dropping. The slowdown will help if the cutback announcement is canceled in September.

A revise of the forecasts after other regional studies for August are published, but already published studies indicate some slowdown in inaction as the opening and fiscal stimulus weakens. The latest wave of COVID is likely to cause some slowdown as well. Nevertheless, the index levels remained quite high, in line with the still stable growth rates.

In July, headline PCE is up 4.2 percent year over year, while Core PCE increased 3.6 percent year over year, both figures coming in line with expectations. In addition, the trade deficit shrank to $86.38 billion in July, while Personal Income and Personal Spending increased by 1.1 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, over the previous month.