US Demand Boosts Oil Prices; Eyes on Fed Policy

On Wednesday, oil prices increased due to anticipated strong global demand, particularly from the United States, the world’s leading consumer.

Despite lingering U.S. inflation concerns, expectations remained unchanged regarding potential rate cuts by the Fed. Brent futures for May climbed by 28 cents to $82.20 per barrel by 0730 GMT, while April U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 28 cents to $77.84.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries maintained its projection for robust global oil demand growth, expecting an increase of 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and 1.85 million bpd in 2025, while also raising its economic growth forecast for the current year.

Additionally, reflecting strong demand, U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories both decreased last week, as reported by market sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute.

Despite solid increases in U.S. consumer prices, particularly in gasoline and shelter costs, analysts maintain the belief that the Federal Reserve might commence rate cuts in the summer. This perception is influenced by the notion that lower rates would bolster oil demand.
Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, commented, “The risk environment remains largely unaffected, as there is a strong belief that the current market expectation of a rate cut only in June will suffice.”

The unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories, coupled with optimistic growth forecasts from OPEC, provided additional support to prices, according to analysts.

In a note to clients, analysts at Capital Economics reiterated their expectation for the Fed to commence easing policy “around June.”

While oil prices faced pressure in the previous session following the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s upward revision of domestic oil output forecasts, declines were tempered by expectations that OPEC+ output cuts would continue to restrain global oil growth.

Additionally, recent drone attacks on Russia, including refineries, contributed to the support of oil prices.

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