The dollar and yen are back today under some selling pressure as markets appear to be returning to risk mode. The dollar’s weakness is also seen as its vulnerability to overcome a key psychological level against the Chinese yuan. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are relatively stronger.
The Australian dollar is currently stronger, supported by general risk sentiment and robust consumer confidence data. The dollar is trading slightly lower, but the euro and Swiss franc are even weaker under the pressure of the corresponding crosses with the pound sterling.
Machine orders in Japan rose 17.1% mom in October, well above expectations of 2.8% mom. This is also the largest month-over-month increase since 2005. By sectors, orders in the manufacturing industry increased by 11.4% mom, and in the non-manufacturing sector – by 13.4% mom.
The data confirmed the upward trend in capital expenditures. Investment can be further boosted by government incentives Fresh JPY 40T. However, the volatile series is subject to revision, while exporters may still have a hard time gaining traction due to global weakness.
Risk sentiment in financial markets is positive in part due to signs of progress in the US fiscal stimulus package, as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, appears poised to agree on a roughly $900 billion stimulus bill.
US stocks hit consecutive highs, even after the broader benchmark S&P 500 and high-tech Nasdaqs rose 11% in November, while the Russell 2000 small-cap jumped 18%.
The US economy could grow early next year on a policy-driven expansion that will raise long-term interest rates and lead to a change of leadership in the stock market based on four key factors.
Rising US home values are making many Americans feel richer, the Federal Reserve’s stimulus measures have boosted the money supply, the Fed remains committed to keeping interest rates low over the long term, and finally, weak US labor markets could reduce consumer spending and inflation.
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