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U.S. corn and soybean crops have initiated this growing season on a robust note. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s first assessment for this season revealed that 72% of soybeans are in either good or excellent condition, surpassing the 10-year average of 68%.
Similarly, corn conditions have been reported at 75% good-to-excellent, exceeding both trade expectations and the 10-year average of 71%.
Comparatively, only two other years in the past two decades have seen better combined corn and soybean health at the beginning of the season: 2014 and 2018.
Despite challenges such as severe drought in the Plains affecting the 2022 harvest, top growers like Iowa and Illinois have continued to achieve strong results.
However, while this year’s crop health bodes well, it may not guarantee yields above the USDA’s trendline, especially for corn. The USDA’s corn trend yield has been a point of contention, with recent years falling short.
In 2023, the U.S. corn harvest set a record but still fell below the trendline, marking the largest shortfall since 2020.Similarly, soybean yields have fluctuated around the trendline, with the USDA’s 2023 and 2024 trend yields closely mirroring previous records.
Despite controversy surrounding trendline projections, USDA’s condition scores suggest both crops are poised for success, barring any extreme weather events.
Forecasting yields often relies on linear regression modeling, which assesses how much yield variation can be explained by factors like weather conditions. 
For corn, late July conditions have the highest correlation with yield deviations from the trendline, reaching an R-square of 0.73. However, incorporating additional factors like July or August weather could enhance the model’s reliability.
In contrast, soybean yield deviations from trend yields yield a lower R-square, remaining below 0.5 until late August. Robust soybean yields are often associated with mid-season conditions, typically around 60% good-to-excellent.
In summary, while the current corn and soybean crops in the U.S. show promise, uncertainties regarding yield outcomes persist, emphasizing the importance of monitoring weather conditions and other variables throughout the growing season.
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