‎Toncoin Poised for Bearish Breakout Amid Symmetrical Triangle Formation

‎TONUSD Market Analysis- August 15

‎Toncoin faces mounting downside pressure as technical indicators and chart patterns align for a potential bearish breakout from its prolonged consolidation range.

‎TONUSD Key Levels

‎Support Levels: $2.8200, $2.1800
‎Resistance Levels: $3.6000, $4.1690

‎TONUSD Long-Term Trend: Bullish

‎Although TONCOIN has maintained an overall bullish market structure in recent years, the underlying price movement since the start of 2025 has leaned bearish. This downward bias persisted for several months until March, when a sharp spike in buying pressure briefly disrupted the trend. However, subsequent price action has been largely choppy, showing no clear directional follow-through.
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‎From April 2025 to date, price has remained trapped in a consolidation range between the $3.6000 resistance and the $2.1800 support. At present, TONUSD is testing the $3.6000 level—the upper boundary of this range—where selling pressure typically emerges. Historically, such price action at the top of a consolidation zone often precedes bearish momentum.
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‎This time, bearish prospects appear stronger as a symmetrical triangle pattern has formed, aligning with downside expectations. Notably, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached overbought territory—a first during this entire consolidation period. This technical shift strengthens the case for a sustained bearish phase and possibly an extended downward continuation.

‎TONUSD Medium-Term Trend: Bearish

‎In the medium-term outlook, the consolidation remains intact, but the market is tilting towards a bearish breakout from the $3.6000 resistance zone. Price action has started showing early bearish structures, most notably the formation of a lower high, breaking the prior sequence of higher highs.
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‎Additionally, TONUSD has recently slipped below the 4-hour Moving Average, signaling the start of a bearish bias. While this signal is still in its early stages, a confirmed breakdown from the symmetrical triangle pattern would serve as a strong trigger for an extended bearish move in the coming sessions.
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