A quiet week ahead for data release, which will have time to reflect on the results of the US presidential election – and what is increasingly likely to become the Biden presidency. The result of the US vote matters to Canada, as Biden’s victory, is likely to mean less uncertainty in international trade, but more potential risks to the completion of the Keystone XL pipeline.
A bigger concern for the economic outlook for the United States and Canada shortly remains the risk of a new round of stricter virus containment measures. The number of cases in the United States has reached new records. Labor markets have continued to improve as governments remain very hesitant to re-impose restrictions, but unemployment claims are still exceptionally high.
Job markets continued to improve outside these sectors – and the first data from the Canadian Manufacturing Survey (October PMI at 55.5) remained relatively stable. Total hours worked increased another 0.8% in October, indicating another rise in GDP. But the risk remains that stricter containment measures will put pressure on the economy in the final months of 2020.
EUR/USD. As we expected in the previous forecast, thanks to the victory of Joe Biden in the US presidential election, the rise in US stocks, and encouraging messages from the front about COVID-19, the euro and other rivals of the dollar can very quickly regain their previous positions lost.
GBP/USD. The British currency rose not only due to the fall in the dollar, but also thanks to the decision of the Bank of England, which on Thursday, November 5, decided to provide additional support to the country’s economy, increasing the bond purchase program by 150 billion pounds and bringing it to 895 billion pounds.
As for the coronavirus, no positive news from this front has yet been reported. Moreover, voting in elections led to a new anti-record in the United States: 100,000 new infections in just one day.
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