Russian Ruble on a Mild Bullish Bounce Ahead of CBR Meeting

A day before the central bank is scheduled to convene to decide on interest rates, the Russian ruble (RUB) recorded some price gains in the early trading session on Thursday.

In the mid-London session today, the ruble was up 0.4% against the dollar (USD) and was at 61.57 against the euro (EUR), both of which were 0.5% higher than where they had closed the previous day.

At 8.47 against the Chinese yuan (CNY), the ruble was likewise higher by 0.3%. As Moscow works to strengthen its economic relations with Beijing and minimize its reliance on Western currencies, the Chinese currency has grown in significance as a gauge for Moscow.

Even if the month-end tax season that has helped the ruble in recent sessions is coming to a close, the currency is still in the lead ahead of the central bank meeting on Friday.

According to a Reuters poll, the regulator is anticipated to maintain rates at their current level of 7.5%, bringing to an end months of significant rate reductions that saw borrowing costs cut from their emergency level of 20%, set days after Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine, and the West started enacting broad sanctions against Russia.

Russian Stock Market Bullish on Thursday

Meanwhile, the local stock market has gained more than 10% over the past two weeks, but Russian stocks only barely increased on Thursday morning. The RTS index in US dollars increased 0.2% to 1,091.1 points. The MOEX Russian index, which is based on the currency, was up 0.4% at 2129.7 points.

Commenting in a research note today, analysts at the state-owned Otkritie bank noted:

“The Russian market is not yet ready for long periods of growth. Therefore, within a few days, any increase runs into profit-taking.”