Indian Rupee Set to Rise Amid Cooling US Inflation

The Indian rupee is gearing up for a notable surge as market optimism grows with expectations of a potential pause in interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Traders and investors are closely monitoring the trajectory of inflation in the United States, as it could influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions in the near future.

The rupee reached a high of  81.95 earlier today against the US dollar, displaying signs of continued strength compared to the previous session’s closing rate of about the same price point. This promising rebound brings the local currency tantalizingly close to recouping all the losses it suffered just last week when the USD/INR pair surged from 81.75 to 82.79.

Reserve Bank of India Supports Rupee at 81.70–81.80 Level

To ensure stability in the Indian currency, the Reserve Bank of India has been actively purchasing dollars in the range of 81.70–81.80 through public sector banks, Reuters reported on Thursday. This proactive approach has effectively communicated the central bank’s commitment to preventing any sharp depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar.

Interbank traders have taken note of this strategic intervention, which has bolstered their confidence in the rupee’s resilience and limited the downside potential of the USD/INR exchange rate.

US Dollar Weakens on Diminished Inflationary Pressure

In an interesting turn of events, the US dollar has encountered significant weakening, reaching its lowest level since April of the previous year. This depreciation is primarily driven by market speculation that the US Federal Reserve may decide to pause its ongoing interest rate hikes sooner than anticipated. The catalyst for this shift in sentiment was the release of unexpectedly subdued US inflation data, which triggered the largest one-day sell-off of the dollar in the past five months.

Consequently, the greenback finds itself at its weakest point in over a year against major currencies such as the euro and sterling. Furthermore, it has reached an eight-year low against the Swiss franc, underscoring the depth of its decline.