Australian Dollar Ends 2025 7% Lower, YTD

After a year in which it was pushed lower by abrasive interest rate increases everywhere, economic limits in China, and concerns for global growth, the Australian dollar ended 2022 with a 7% annual decline, its largest since 2018.

Another risky currency, the New Zealand dollar, ended the year 7.5% lower than it started, which would be its biggest decline since 2015.

The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) dropped on Friday to $0.6764 from $0.6787, its second-highest mark in two weeks, amid weak year-end flows. Support is found around $0.6722, the 10-day moving average, and resistance is found at 68 cents.

Like the Australian Dollar, NZD Struggles with Support

After soaring 0.6% overnight to a seven-day high of $0.6357, the kiwi (NZD/USD) also fell, this time by 0.3% to $0.6332. The current level of support is $0.6230. The recovery in recently battered mega-cap growth stocks helped the Australian and New Zealand dollars conclude 2021 at $0.7269 and $0.6844, respectively.

According to analysts at Capital Economics, “Taking a step back as we approach the end of the year, 2022 has been a rollercoaster for currency markets. While we thought the dollar would have a good year, the extent of its rally was surprising.” They added:

“On balance, we think another leg up in the dollar in the first half of 2023 is the most likely outcome.”

The futures market now suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia, the first major central bank to slow its pace of interest rate rises, may raise rates to 4% by September next year, compared with an outlook of 3.6% just a week earlier.