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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to greenlight the first Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) by May 23, mirroring the approach taken with spot bitcoin ETFs, reveals a report by Standard Chartered Bank.
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK SAYS
THAT THE SEC COULD APPROVE
SPOT ETHEREUM ETF ON MAY 23.SEND ETH TO $3,000 🔥
— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) January 30, 2024
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Forex and Digital Assets Research at the bank, suggests that while initial Ethereum ETF applications might face rejection, approval is likely on the final review date, similar to the pattern observed with bitcoin ETFs approved on Jan. 10 following earlier denials.
Kendrick projects a potential surge in Ethereum’s value to $4,000 by the specified date, drawing parallels with Bitcoin’s pre-ETF approval trajectory. His forecast hinges on the SEC treating Ethereum akin to Bitcoin, considering the absence of security classification in past legal actions.
Kendrick underscores Ethereum’s standing as a regulated futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), bolstering its case for ETF approval.
Grayscale’s GETH Conversion to Force SEC’s Hand on Ethereum ETF Decision
The fate of Grayscale Ethereum Trust (GETH) further shapes the SEC’s decision, with Grayscale expressing its intent to convert GETH into an ETF. Kendrick suggests a likely appeal from Grayscale should the SEC reject its application.
Bullish on crypto, Kendrick forecasts significant inflows of $50–100 billion into spot bitcoin ETFs this year, potentially propelling bitcoin to $100,000 by year-end and $200,000 by 2025. He attributes the post-ETF approval bitcoin price dip to outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has since rebounded to trade around $43,500.
Noting Ethereum’s resilience post-approval, Kendrick attributes it to GETH having a smaller share of the total Ethereum market cap than GBTC had of the Bitcoin market cap pre-ETF approval. Lower FTX holdings of GETH further mitigate arbitrage risks.
Kendrick anticipates SEC approval for straightforward Ethereum ETFs tracking Ethereum prices initially, with more complex ETFs incorporating staking yield rewards potentially gaining approval later. European counterparts, such as the 21Shares Ethereum Staking ETP (AETH), already exist but with higher fees offsetting staking rewards.
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