Gold Price Analysis — October 14

Gold (XAU/USD) has recovered by about $15 from yesterday’s low and has recorded a new daily high in the early European session, as bulls fight for $1900 again. 

The yellow metal found some dip-buyers at the $1882 area and appears to have stalled the steep retracement from its recent three-week high at $1933. A weakened US dollar (DXY) is seen as one of the major factors extending support to the dollar-denominated commodity. 

The greenback struggled to maintain its overnight gains as hopes for a fresh round of stimulus faded coupled with the political uncertainty in the US currently. This is happening amid the recent setback in the race for a COVID-19 vaccine and a weaker bias around the US Treasury bond yields, which has driven additional demand towards the non-yielding metal. 

However, relative stability in the equity markets has continued to thwart significant demand for traditional safe-haven assets and gold in extension. That said, it is advisable to wait for a substantial follow-through bull run before traders can start taking aggressive bets in the near-term. 

Moving on, market participants will be looking at the US economic docket today—which features the PPI data release—for clues. This, coupled with comments from FOMC members later today, could influence the short-term price dynamics of the USD in the North American session. 

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — October 14

XAU/USD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: $1909, $1923, and $1933

Demand Levels: $1883, $1876, and $1849

XAU/USD traded with a heavy bearish bias yesterday. However, that momentum is starting to ease after the commodity hits the base of our channel. On our 4-hour chart, we can see that gold bounced off the baseline of our ascending channel. This is the third time that base has been tested in the past 7 days, indicating that this level is a crucial support for the safe-haven asset in the meantime. 

That said, we could see gold make another attempt to the top of our channel again as market risk eases. 

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