Gold Price Analysis — October 12

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Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade near its monthly highs around $1933 as speculations over a fresh round of stimulus measures in the US weighs heavily on the greenback.

The precious metal fought against the odds and extended its recovery from its monthly low around $1873 despite several risk-boosting events. Analysts have proposed that gold’s decline from its recent all-time high ($2075) was as a result of bullish exhaustion and not a change in market behavior. This means that we could see a resumption of the bullish wave, possibly to a new all-time high.

Meanwhile, it appears that the FOMC will depend on its available tools to bolster the US economy, as the bank promises to “increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency MBS (mortgage-backed securities) at least at the current pace.”

Furthermore, the FOMC appears to be in no hurry to make changes to their monetary policy as the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicate that the long-term interest rate forecast has remained unchanged since the meeting in June, and the Fed may keep it that way at the next meeting in November.

However, we could expect to see a change of tone in the committee over the coming months.

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — October 12

XAU/USD Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: $1933, $1940, and $1960

Demand Levels: $1909, $1900, and $1876

Gold has performed positively over the past two trading sessions. This bullish momentum is expected to be extended well into this week. That said, we should expect to see the XAU/USD retest and break its monthly high ($1933) and proceed to the $1940 resistance.

Meanwhile, we can see on our 4-hour chart that gold is still trading with our upward-facing channel despite breaking below last week. In an event where the commodity decides to retrace, we could see strong bullish support from the base of our channel at $1909. Nonetheless, the main bias for gold remains bullish in the meantime.

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