Market Analysis – July 15
The bullish trend that began in early 2025 has come to an end, signaling the conclusion of a significant upward phase in GBPUSD following the break above its previous major high.
GBPUSD Key Levels
Demand Levels: 1.25200, 1.21400, 1.17300
Supply Levels: 1.29500, 1.34400, 1.38800
GBPUSD Long-Term Trend: Bearish
After a sharp bullish reversal in January 2025, GBPUSD surged upward, clearing major supply zones at 1.29500 and 1.34400. This strong momentum led to the creation of a new major high, surpassing the previous peak set in September 2024.
As the price approached the 1.38800 supply zone, it broke below the ascending trendline—an important indication of a bearish reversal. The daily Moving Average has now turned downward, confirming a shift to a long-term downtrend. Currently, the price is retracing towards the 1.34400 level, with further movement toward the 1.29500 zone anticipated in the days ahead. Forex signals now favor caution for bullish traders as the trend weakens.
GBPUSD Short-Term Trend: Bearish
On the 4-hour timeframe, the break in the bullish structure is more apparent. Since the trendline was breached, GBPUSD has consistently traded below the 4-hour Moving Average, reinforcing the prevailing bearish outlook. Following a retest of the 1.34400 zone, the price has resumed its decline.
Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart shows oversold conditions, indicating the possibility of a short-term bullish retracement. This could lead to a retest of the broken trendline or the 1.34400 zone before the downward trend continues.
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