EURCHF Experiences Lethargic Breakout

The EURCHF market entered a bearish phase at the start of the year’s second half. The market structure has shown a steady decline, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, forming a bearish parallel channel that led prices down toward the key demand level of 0.93300 on the daily chart.

Demand Levels: 0.93340, 0.92110, 0.91000

Supply Levels: 0.94520, 0.95660, 0.96430

The demand level around 0.93300 has effectively acted as a support zone, preventing further price declines despite multiple seller attempts to break below it. Since August, this demand level has been tested four times, with each attempt failing to result in a breakout, indicating strong buying interest at this level.

In September, the price approached the resistance trendline of the bearish channel. This led to a subsequent price drop that was again halted at the 0.93300 demand level. The resistance trendline formed a downward slope, while the demand level created equal lows, resulting in a downward-sloping triangle pattern. This pattern has now led to a breakout above the upper boundary of the bearish channel.

This push above the bearish trendline has not been accompanied by a fair value gap, signalling a lethargic breakout, primarily sustained due to the support at 0.93300.

In the short term, the price has broken through the lower timeframe key level of 0.9340 to the upside. A pullback to the trendline for a retest has followed. However, the price action remains choppy, reflecting indecision. Until the key level of 0.9452 and the swing high of 0.9500 are convincingly breached, a sustained bullish trend remains uncertain.