EUR/AUD Price Analysis — November 26

The EUR/AUD traded on a sideways bias into the early European session Thursday, as volatility across markets spike.

All eyes are now on the European Central Bank’s meeting minutes release. Speculators expect an expansion in Quantitative easing, but the extent of the easing is unknown. Also, there are suspicions that the apex bank could opt for further rate cuts considering that the option has never been denied by the bank. While printing new euros has supported the currency during the COVID-19 pandemic, a rate cut in borrowing cost could be bad for the euro.

Meanwhile, Germany is preparing to impose renewed lockdown restrictions, unlike the trend in France and Spain, where case curves have gotten bent. German Chancellor Angela Merkel explained that Coronavirus infections in the country are still too high and that additional measures needed to be adopted to curb the spread. However, a slowdown in Germany’s economy would have severe negative impacts on the euro’s gains.

In other news, commodities continue to bolster the Aussie, as recent data measuring Australia’s commodity export show that export prices are nearing a seven-year high, with iron ore above $125 per tonne.

Also, November was a decent month for retail sales and jobs records in the country, while state border reopenings gave investors confidence that the RBA’s easing measures would yield the positive outcome it was intended to.

EUR/AUD Value Forecast — November 26

EUR/AUD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 1.6200, 1.6330, and 1.6400

Demand Levels: 1.6150, 1.6100, and 1.6000

The EUR/AUD has been trading within a tight range between 1.6230 and 1.6150 for the past few days, with the 1.6200 price point being the crucial pivot level. The tone surrounding the upcoming ECB meeting minutes release should direct the next sharp move in the coming hours.

Nonetheless, the overall bias on this pair remains tilted to the downside.

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