EUR/AUD Price Analysis — February 4

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The EUR/AUD traded on a downbeat momentum in the early European session on Thursday, as the EUR comes under pressure from the ECB.

European Central Bank member Klaas Knot recently complained bitterly about the high valuation of the euro, noting that the institution had the tools to tackle this problem. Not so long later, reports showed that the ECB could cut its deposit rate—which currently sits at -0.50%—even further. This development is responsible for the depressed mood around the euro.

Meanwhile, some areas in Spain are already running out of vaccines, as the countries scurry to vaccinate their citizens. The vaccination fallout in Spain threatens to derail an economic recovery in the region, placing additional pressure on the EUR.

In other news, the Aussie is beginning to enjoy some demand, following the release of mixed Australian data over the week. The Q4 Consumer Price Index came in at 0.9% (YoY), beating economists’ 0.7% estimates, while the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4 (YoY) came in at 1.2%. However, NAB’s Business Confidence contracted to 4 in December 2020, while Business Conditions climbed to 14 in the same period.

It’s also worth mentioning that risk catalysts like the growing US-China tensions, vaccine news, and US stimulus updates could determine the price action of the risk-based AUD in the coming hours and days.

EUR/AUD Value Forecast — February 4

EUR/AUD Major Bias: Bearish

Supply Levels: 1.5800, 1.5900, and 1.5950

Demand Levels: 1.5675, 1.6000, and 1.5500

Despite a healthy bullish pickup last week, the EUR/AUD remained incapable of sustaining a break above our descending channel. The pair will now be on a journey to the base of the channel at 1.5400. However, completion of this cycle could take several days or even weeks.

That said, we expect a mild bullish correction to the 1.5800 resistance before we see a bearish continuation in the coming hours.

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