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Investors eagerly await the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on Ethereum-based Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), with several proposals under review. The deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s proposal is May 23, followed by ARK/21Shares and Hashdex on May 24 and May 30, respectively.
Initially, optimism surrounded the approval chances, with analysts estimating a 60% likelihood. However, as the deadline nears, confidence has waned, with predictions now as low as 35%.
Ethereum ETF approval for May 23rd is looking less and less likely…
Blackrock final approval date is August 7th, will Gary dare to deny Blackrock?
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) April 10, 2024
The skepticism isn’t unfounded. The derivatives market reflects this uncertainty, with ether options for May’s end-of-month expiry indicating a surge in volatility, especially around the $3,600 price level. Ruslan Lienkha, Chief of Markets at YouHodler, told The Block that any movement beyond this price by the spot market could trigger even higher volatility.
JP Morgan Projects a 50% Chance of Approval for Ethereum ETFs
Adding to the complexity, the SEC’s recent investigation into companies linked to the Ethereum Foundation casts a shadow over the approval process. This probe aligns with JPMorgan’s analysis, which maintains that the chance of approval doesn’t exceed 50%. The bank had previously expressed doubts in January, and the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs earlier this year has only intensified speculation about Ethereum’s prospects.
JPMORGAN SURPRISINGLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT $ETH ETF APPROVAL IN MAY – SEC TO FACE LEGAL ACTION IF DENIED…
– In a today research report, banking giant JPMorgan shared its belief that the chance of an #Ethereum ETF being approved by the SEC in May 2024 are no more than 50%.
— BSCN (@BSCNews) April 11, 2024
Should the SEC deny the spot ether ETFs, JPMorgan anticipates litigation similar to cases involving Grayscale and Ripple, potentially leading to eventual approval but not as soon as May.
Decentralization of Ethereum staking could influence the SEC’s decision, as a declining concentration of staking may prevent Ethereum from being classified as a security, thus avoiding additional regulatory requirements.
The outcome of these decisions could set a precedent for the treatment of digital assets by regulatory bodies worldwide, potentially paving the way for a new era of crypto-based financial products. Investors and analysts are closely monitoring the SEC’s actions as they await a decision that could reshape the future of cryptocurrency regulation.
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