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The euro is weakening noticeably today as the recovery momentum ebbed quickly. However, the dollar is not gaining much momentum as commodity currencies generally trade higher amid a new wave of buying. The Australian dollar leads again.
The move comes amid the inauguration of new US President Joe Biden, who markets believe will support additional stimulus to support the US and the global economy in the face of COVID-19.
Due to renewed fears of a pandemic and subsequent blockages, the EUR/USD pair recently suffered losses that reached the support level of 1.2053, the lowest in a month and a half.
The Canadian dollar is ignoring weaker-than-expected inflation indicators and awaiting the Bank of Canada rate decision and the next change in oil prices. In other markets, gold is going crazy today but remains in the established range. WTI oil is poised to resume its recent uptrend.
The euro will be more sensitive this week to the impact of the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy decision and a press conference scheduled at 12:45 pm and 13:30 Thursday, which will take place immediately after Inauguration Day, and will give ECB Governor Christine Lagarde the ability to cope with the euro/dollar appreciation to a post-2018 high of 1.2350 and the economic outlook tainted by new coronavirus restrictions and a slower vaccine rollout.
ECB’s Policy Stance on Rates May Trigger Buy-the-Dip Chance
The European Central Bank (ECB) intends to leave its policy unchanged in January. President Christine Lagarde could provoke a “buy-in” opportunity by trying to bring the euro down, as unless the bank threatens lower rates, the euro/dollar will resume gains based on dollar weakness.
Aside from the ECB’s decision, the upcoming eurozone data could also affect the euro if it surprises investors. Even if Lagarde tries to push the euro down, strong consumer confidence in the eurozone or PMI statistics by the end of the week could support the euro/US dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD).
Resistance is expected at 1.2180, which capped EUR/USD last week. It was followed by 1.2225, which was then the peak. Support is expected around the former triple bottom at 1.2125 and then around 1.21. The focus is on what Biden does in his early hours and days at the White House.
A call to wear face masks and an intensified vaccination campaign in America will be welcomed, while attempts to force states to shut down will put pressure on markets.
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