Dollar Bounces Back on Strong US CPI Numbers, Forecast Remains Poor at ‘AAA’

Dollar: Inflation rose more than expected in June, according to data released on Wednesday. Price increases remained connected to a few relatively limited areas, according to analysts, but there is growing evidence that inflation is spreading beyond the items at the heart of the surge. They recognize that the data will have little impact on the Federal Reserve’s inflation policy.

After a considerably greater than expected CPI inflation estimate, the dollar rallies significantly in the US session. Since January, the headline reading has risen every month and shows no signs of slowing down. Following the greenback, the yen also recovers. For the time being, the weakest currencies are the British pound and the Canadian dollar.

The US consumer price index rose 0.9% mom in June, well above expectations of 0.5% mom. This is the largest monthly increase since June 2008. The core CPI rose 0.9% mom, which is also above expectations of 0.5% mom. Over the past 12 months, the general CPI has accelerated to 5.4% YoY, up from 4.0% YoY, above expectations of 4.9% YoY This is the highest annual rate since August 2008. The core CPI jumped to 4.5% YoY from 3.8% YoY, above expectations of 4.0% YoY.

Dollar: US Forecast Remains Poor at ‘AAA’

In its most recent US Foreign Currency Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) rating report, Fitch maintains US AAA status but maintains a poor rating outlook. The rating giant believes that the US debt tolerance is higher than that of other AAA-rated sovereign states while highlighting the risks to public finances and debt trajectory.

The EUR/USD pair hit a new multi-month low of 1.1773 before holding near that level ahead into the Asian start, which is usually a warning of more losses to come. The GBP/USD exchange rate is hovering at 1.3820, while the AUD/USD exchange rate is approaching the 2021 low of 0.7409.

The rating agency’s hopes for monetary policy adjustment are bolstered by strong inflation statistics, which favors the current risk-off sentiment. Despite increasing oil prices, the dollar maintains its traction. WTI rose above $75.00 a barrel in anticipation of tighter supply as OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on additional output, as well as forecasts of significant drawdowns in US stocks.