Corn Market Outlook as Trading Resumes in the New Year

Corn market outlook comes into focus as futures resume trading at 8:30 a.m. CST following the New Year holiday break. The market ended the final session of 2025 with prices steady to slightly lower, reflecting a cautious tone as traders prepared for the new calendar year.

During Wednesday’s close, open interest increased by 5,462 contracts, even as 4,078 March contracts exited the market. Meanwhile, the CmdtyView national average cash corn price slipped another 1½ cents to $3.96¼, signaling continued pressure in the physical market.

USDA Payments and Positioning Support Sentiment

The corn market outlook received some attention after the USDA released payment details for the Farm Bridge Assistance program. Corn payments were set at $44.36 per acre, while sorghum payments were slightly higher at $48.11 per acre. These payments may offer short-term support for producers heading into the new year.

Commitment of Traders data showed a notable shift in speculative positioning. Managed money returned to a net long position of 2,759 contracts, driven largely by aggressive short covering. Total short positions declined by more than 64,000 contracts, suggesting improving sentiment in the corn market outlook despite recent price softness.

Exports and Ethanol Data Add Key Signals

USDA export sales data provided a bullish note. Corn sales for the week ending December 18 reached 2.2 million metric tons, the strongest level in five weeks and nearly 29% higher than the same period last year. Strong demand remains a constructive factor in the broader corn market outlook.

Ethanol production data also offered mixed signals. Weekly output rose to 1.12 million barrels per day, while ethanol stocks increased to 22.944 million barrels. However, exports declined, and ethanol inputs by refiners edged lower.

Overall, the corn market outlook entering the new year reflects improving demand indicators, shifting fund positioning, and cautious optimism as fresh data guides early 2026 trading.

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