Cocoa Prices Rebound as Ivory Coast Export Slowdown Sparks Supply Concerns

Overview

Cocoa prices rebounded this week as exports from Ivory Coast declined sharply. The slowdown raised concerns about supply and helped lift market sentiment after prices recently hit a two-week low.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Exports Drop 9%

New data showed that Ivory Coast cocoa exports fell by 9% year-on-year. From October 1 to November 8, farmers shipped 411,979 metric tons (MT) of cocoa compared to 454,624 MT in the same period last year.

The drop in exports fueled expectations of tighter global supply. Since Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer, any decline in output or exports can quickly affect global cocoa prices.

Strong West African Crop Keeps Market Balanced

Despite the slowdown in exports, crop conditions across West Africa remain strong. Farmers in both Ivory Coast and Ghana report healthy cocoa pod development.

Dry weather in some regions has helped beans dry faster, while other areas benefited from steady rainfall. According to Mondelez International, the regional pod count is 7% higher than the five-year average — a positive sign for upcoming harvests.

Cocoa Gains Entry into Bloomberg Commodity Index

Market optimism also grew after cocoa was added to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) for the first time in 20 years. This inclusion could attract new investment into the market.

Analysts at Peak Trading Research LLC estimate about $1.9 billion could flow into cocoa futures next year, out of roughly $109 billion that tracks the index.

At the same time, ICE-monitored inventories fell to a 7.5-month low of 1.79 million bags, supporting the upward movement in prices.

Chocolate Demand Remains Weak

Even though prices are rising, chocolate demand remains weak in key markets. Research firm Circana reported that North American chocolate sales dropped 21% year-over-year in the 13 weeks ending September 7, 2025.

In Asia, cocoa grindings fell 17%, marking a nine-year low. Europe’s grindings also declined 4.8%, the lowest level in a decade.

Although North American grindings rose slightly, analysts believe this was due to new companies joining the data set rather than genuine demand growth.

Nigeria’s Cocoa Production to Decline

In Nigeria, the fifth-largest cocoa producer, the Cocoa Association of Nigeria predicts production will drop 11% in the 2025/26 season, from 344,000 MT to 305,000 MT.

Despite the lower forecast, exports remained steady at 14,511 MT in September, showing resilience in trade activity.

ICCO Projects Shift from Deficit to Surplus

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently adjusted its 2023/24 cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest in more than 60 years.

However, for 2024/25, the ICCO expects a surplus of 142,000 MT as global production rises by 7.8% to 4.84 million MT.

Still, experts warn that unpredictable weather and logistics could prevent a significant drop in cocoa prices.

Market Outlook

The cocoa market remains balanced between tight short-term supply and strong long-term output expectations.

If weather conditions stay favorable, upcoming harvests in West Africa may stabilize prices.

However, with low inventories, index inflows, and weak chocolate demand, analysts expect continued price volatility through the rest of the year.

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