Ruble Plummets as Global Factors Take Toll

The Russian currency’s (ruble) rollercoaster ride continues as it nears a critical juncture, closing in on 101 per dollar, reminiscent of Monday’s unsettling low of 102.55. This downturn, fueled by heightened demand for foreign currency domestically and falling global oil prices, has sent shockwaves through financial markets.

Today’s turbulent ride saw the ruble briefly weaken by a staggering 2.6% to 100.79 against the dollar before modestly recovering to 99.45 at the time of writing. It also conceded ground, losing 1.46% against the euro and 2.3% against the yuan. Monday had seen a fleeting resurgence in the ruble’s fortunes, but it couldn’t maintain the momentum.

CBR Leaves Ruble to Its Own Device

Surprisingly, the Bank of Russia, which had aggressively raised its key interest rate to 12% back in August to shore up the ruble, has remained relatively quiet this time. No concrete plans for imposing capital controls or other stabilizing measures have been unveiled by the authorities.

The ruble’s woes can be attributed to a complex interplay of factors. While seasonal demand for foreign currency from exporters and households and geopolitical tensions with Ukraine and Western nations play a part, the primary catalyst is the slump in oil prices, a cornerstone of Russia’s revenue.

Oil aficionados might note that Brent crude, the global yardstick for Russia’s exports, dipped 0.38% to $87.02 a barrel on Tuesday, barely recovering from a minor uptick on Monday. The oil market has felt the squeeze from surging supply and sluggish demand amidst the persistent specter of the coronavirus.

Unsurprisingly, the Russian stock market mirrored the ruble’s descent, according to Reuters. The dollar-based RTS index dipped 1.1% to 995.8 points, while the ruble-based MOEX Russian index slipped by 0.1% to 3,171.6 points.