British Pound Drops as Job Data Weakens Rate Hike Expectations

The British pound faced a downward spiral against the US dollar and the euro on Tuesday, driven by disheartening labor market statistics signaling a slowdown in the UK economy. This unsettling data casts shadows on the likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) opting for interest rate hikes anytime soon.

Official reports unveiled a concerning decline, with average earnings (excluding bonuses) growing by a marginal 7.8% year-on-year in the three months leading up to August. This marked the first dip since January, casting doubt on the health of the labor market. The number of job vacancies also receded, further signifying a loss of momentum.

However, some key data, like the unemployment rate, has been deferred until next week, adding an air of uncertainty. The Bank of England remains a vigilant observer of the labor market, particularly focusing on wage trends, as it ponders the course of its rate hike cycle, which was paused in September following 14 consecutive increments.

Nomura, a global financial services powerhouse, has opined that the disappointing labor market figures may influence the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee when deciding on interest rates, according to a Reuters report. They anticipate the possibility of a rate cut in the third quarter of the coming year, contending that the era of rate hikes has concluded.

Currently, money markets are pricing in a 77% probability that the BoE will maintain its existing rates at the forthcoming meeting in November.

This week also bears significance for the UK economy with the impending release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, a crucial gauge of inflation trends, scheduled for Wednesday.

British Pound Drops Across Board

As of the time of this article, the pound was down by 0.65% against the dollar, surpassing its low from the previous day and pushing below the 1.2140 mark. Against the euro, Sterling weakened towards the October 3 low of 0.8691 as the EUR/GBP pair rose by 0.47% in the London session.

As uncertainty clouds the British pound, market participants are keenly watching economic indicators and central bank moves, all of which may have a profound impact on the currency’s trajectory in the near future.

 

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