Aussie: After a Delayed Recovery, Is AUDUSD Ready To Make a Turnaround?

The Aussie has risen further, reaching a new high of 0.7745. After a 70-pip rebound from the lows, it has remained at the top, erasing the majority of the week’s losses. The Aussie rise was sparked by a general decrease in the US dollar following the release of the US employment report. Payrolls increased by 559K in May, falling short of forecasts and defying the chances of a good surprise following Thursday’s employment statistics.

The dollar had been in a strong position to conclude the year but was regrettably brought down by a good, but disappointing non-farm payroll report. The data hasn’t changed Fed officials’ underlying view, so it’s just time to speak about talking about tapering for now. The influence of vaccine and inflation dynamics will take some time to fully manifest.

However, the New Zealand Dollar has been the weakest performer, retracing some of its recent gains. Despite some strong statistics, the Euro was the second-worst. Therefore, if the ECB implies that it is ready to slow down the pace of asset purchases this week, the Euro could see some upside, at least against the dollar and the Yen. Surprisingly, the Australian Dollar was the strongest, and it has the technical capacity to outperform in the future.

As Aussie Rises, DXY Fell Below the 50-Day Moving Average

Last week, the dollar index’s recovery stalled once more, failing to even reach the 50-day MA (now at 90.71). With the 90.90 barriers intact, the near-term view remains bearish, as the decline from 93.43 might extend to a retest of the 89.20 low. At this time, the daily RSI’s negative momentum does not necessitate a major break there.

With another rise and a break of resistance at 90.90, the consolidation pattern from 89.20 will be extended back to 93.43. A firm breach of 89.20, on the other hand, will resume the downtrend from 102.99 to 88.25 long-term support and below. Surprisingly, the Aussie ended up as the strongest, thanks to a late rebound. Technically, there is a chance that the Australian dollar will recover from its three-month slump.

In particular, the AUD/USD pullback from 0.7890 appears to have ended around 0.7644. This week’s initial emphasis is on the 0.7772 resistance level. A big break of the 0.7890 resistance will reinforce this bullish thesis and lead to a larger rise over the 0.7890 resistance. With a sustained breach of 0.7890, the broader rising trend from 0.5506 is expected to resume through the 0.8006 high.