AUD/NZD Price Analysis — October 5

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The AUD/NZD spiked significantly from under 1.0600 in late July to tops above 1.1000 in August. In September, the pair experienced a major retracement, which sent it to the 0.0717 September low two weeks ago. 

Throughout the last week, this pair has managed to rebound higher to the 1.0850 level. However, economists at Westpac (an Australian bank and financial service provider) have predicted that a pullback to the 1.0700 could emerge in the near-term. They added that significantly more swings will occur through Q4, considering the current situation with the COVID-19 pandemic and the upcoming US Presidential Elections. They believe that this could take the AUD/NZD to the 1.1200 area. 

They explained that some of the pullbacks in the AUD/NZD are mainly as a result of the Aussie’s sensitivity to the global risk sentiment. They added that the relationship between the equity markets and the AUD/NZD is usually fluid, but has taken a turn this year as the AUD seems to have become the preferred proxy for risk since March. 

Furthermore, Westpac expects a cheap bank funding scheme to be announced in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting in November. This would further bolster the AUD and push the AUD/NZD above the 1.1200 area by the end of the year. 

AUD/NZD Value Forecast — October 5

AUD/NZD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 1.0844, 1.0900, and 1.0934

Demand Levels: 1.0725, 1.0700, and 1.0664

Technically, the AUD/NZD has been trading under intense bearish pressure. The pair appears to have been trading within a strong downward-facing channel—a deviation from the 6-month-old major bullish channel.

Currently, there’s a confluence of resistance at the 1.0830-44 region. This pair would have to defeat that level to break out of the bearish channel and into the bullish channel before it can reclaim a bullish standing. Failure to do so could extend the AUD/NZD journey downwards, below the 1.0725 strong support. 

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