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The AUD is leading the recovery in commodity currencies in currency markets, aided by a little more positive RBA statement. The European majors, along with the Yen, have had the weakest performers, while the Dollar has been inconsistent.
Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent policy meeting, the Australian dollar has continued to outperform at the start of this week. The Aussie is set to benefit from further gains as the RBA is expected to accelerate and maybe halt QE as soon as the February meeting.
The RBA, as expected, left its monetary policy unchanged. The target for the cash rate is 0.10%. It reiterated that “the Board of Directors will not increase the cash rate until the actual inflation is consistently within the target range of 2-3 percent.”
The asset purchases will continue at AU $4 billion per week until at least mid-February 2022. The decision on the program in February will be based on the same three considerations that have been used from the beginning: “the actions of other central banks; how the Australian bond market works; and, most importantly, actual and expected progress towards achieving full employment and inflation targets in line with the target.”
AiG service performance in Australia rose 2.0 points to 49.6 points in November. Sales fell -1.6 to 53.6. Employment fell from -0.6 to 56.2. New orders increased from 8.6 to 47.4. Deliveries to suppliers rose 0.9 to 40.4. Raw material prices fell from -8.3 to 65.3. Selling prices fell from -3.5 to 58.2.
Ai Group CEO Innes Willcocks said: “Australia’s services sector was broadly stable in November, below expectations for a more robust recovery from the COVID-19 recession in recent months.” Also published the house price index in Q3 rose by 5.0% QoQ, slightly below expectations of 5.1% QoQ.
The AUD has benefited from both new policy stimulus in China and increased speculation that the RBA may end its quantitative easing program ahead of schedule next year. “The Fed’s decision to accelerate the quantitative easing cut along with this may prompt the RBA to accelerate the implementation of the cut plans early next year.”
The tone of the announcement does suggest that the RBA expects Australia’s economy to continue to recover over the coming year, requiring further withdrawal of political stimulus.
The RBA’s forecasts for rate hikes starting in 2023 are predicated on the key premise that underlying inflation will remain low and wage growth will be modest. If these assumptions are called into question, the RBA will face increased pressure to accelerate its rate hike plans.
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