Why Bitcoin (BTC) Is Rallying (CONFIDENTIAL)

THE RICKY BOBBY OF ASSETS

 

“If you ain’t first you’re last.”

Just like Ricky Bobby…

Bitcoin has seen more ups and downs than a tractor in a mud bog.

Let’s zoom out and look at what’s driving Bitcoin higher this time.

A.] Inflation

B.] Bitcoin ETF inflows (fastest ETF growth in history)

C.] Halving in April

D.] ETH ETF anticipation

Sure. Sure. You’ve heard it all before, right?

Maybe not…

Let’s start from the top.
INFLATION
Mega-Bitcoiner Michael Saylor is predictably back in the news.

His take:

“There are a group of people that I align with, the Bitcoiners, that believe the true inflation rate is not CPI, but rather the asset inflation rate. It’s the rate at which the long bond, the t-bills, and the equities have been moving up in the past decade. Or the expansion of the monetary supply.”

Saylor argues that if we consider the real rate of inflation to be the rate at which asset prices and the monetary supply are increasing, then the true decrease in purchasing power is much greater than what CPI indicates.

(Obviously.)

BUT, his point:

In this scenario, traditional savings and investment vehicles are insufficient to protect wealth. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, cannot be diluted or controlled by any central authority, making it an attractive option for preserving value.

We wouldn’t blame him for feeling a little vindicated.

Microstrategy struggled for twenty years to grow above a $2 billion company.

Then, they adopted the Bitcoin standard.

Now? It’s above $12 billion

Saylor is betting more companies are going to jump on board. Once, of course, they realize they’re sitting on a “melting ice cube.”

Then, it’s off to the races.

Couple that with:

BITCOIN ETFs
The first gold spot ETF was launched on Nov 18, 2004.

The ETF saw about $1.3 billion in the first 14 days.

Now, consider…

Before the ETF, gold was in a long, crushing bear market.
On January 11, spot Bitcoin ETFs went live.

The Bitcoin ETFs saw over $1.7 billion in the first 14 days.

It quickly surpassed silver, becoming the second-largest commodity ETF.

Gold: $96 billion
BITCOIN: $27.5 billion
Silver: $11.5 billion
Analysts were predicting $500 million monthly inflows for the Bitcoin ETF.

Bitcoin is doing that daily.

HALVING
Looks like the halving is happening on April 20.

(Yes, I know, 4/20.)

Typically, miners sell before the halving to upgrade their equipment. After all, they’re getting a pay cut and the halving forces them to be at least twice as efficient to remain competitive.

The same dynamic has been playing out. Miners have made up a huge chunk of the selling pressure in the past month.

That said…

Historically, each halving has led to increased market attention and interest, sending Bitcoin up for months afterward.

For example…

The first halving in November 2012, the second in July 2016, and the third in May 2020, each followed a pattern where the price of Bitcoin increased significantly after a period of adjustment and increased adoption, despite initial volatility and changes in mining profitability.

While SHORT-TERM impacts on price are not always dramatic, the months and years following halving events have typically seen HUGE price rallies.

This historical data is also pushing the price higher. Get in BEFORE the halving seems to be the sentiment.

ETH ETFS ARE NEXT
Franklin Templeton just filed an application for an Ethereum ETF.
With Ethereum, you have the same dynamic potentially playing out.

But maybe even more dramatic.

One of the biggest differences between the Bitcoin ETF and the Ethereum ETF is that, with Ethereum, the selling pressure isn’t as severe from miners.

Furthermore…

Larry Fink, Jamie Dimon, and many other players have come out and expressed bullish views on tokenization.

Fink said the ETFs are just a stepping stone to “the technological revolution in financial markets” that includes “the tokenization of every financial asset.”

The premier blockchain for tokenization? Ethereum.

In anticipation of the ETF, Standard Chartered sees Ethereum hitting $4,000 by May.

Our prediction? Bigger.

Author: Chris Campbell

Source: AltucherConfidential