Week Ahead: June 23–27 – Markets Await PCE Data, Global PMI Reports, and Central Bank Clues

 

Week Ahead signals a busy economic calendar from June 23 to 27, with global markets bracing for crucial data releases that could sway central bank decisions and investor sentiment. The main highlight will be the U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, while additional updates from Europe, Asia, and North America will round out a week of high-impact events.

Key Global Events and Data Releases

On Monday, investors will react to June’s preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports from major economies such as Australia, Japan, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These indicators will offer an early glimpse into business conditions across both manufacturing and services.

Wednesday brings fresh trade data from New Zealand and Australia’s CPI inflation figures, while Japan’s central bank will publish the Summary of Opinions from its latest meeting. The Czech Republic’s central bank will also announce its interest rate decision, which could influence regional currencies.

On Thursday, markets will watch Germany’s GfK consumer confidence index for July, the UK’s CBI distributive trades data, U.S. durable goods orders for May, final Q1 GDP figures, and the weekly jobless claims report.

Friday concludes the week with several top-tier releases: Tokyo’s CPI for June, France’s preliminary HICP, Eurozone economic sentiment, Canada’s April GDP, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for June. The May U.S. PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge, will dominate attention.

USD and GBP in the Spotlight

For the U.S. dollar, the PCE reading will be pivotal. Should inflation accelerate, it could support the Federal Reserve’s stance to delay rate cuts, boosting the dollar. However, a cooler PCE print may increase expectations of monetary easing, weakening the greenback. Recent Fed projections signal two potential rate cuts in 2025, so any hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials will be closely watched.

For the British pound, Bank of England’s recent decision to hold rates at 4.25% was accompanied by hints of possible future cuts. Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak next week, and his tone could sway the pound. Traders will also monitor June’s services PMI, a key driver of UK economic momentum.

While minor trade optimism emerged from a U.S.–UK deal lifting some barriers, geopolitical risks remain a concern—particularly with the UK’s involvement in the Middle East through its Cyprus air base.

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