USDCAD recorded a failure swing in March after testing the resistance zone at 1.46670. A lower high formed relative to this swing high, signaling early weakness in bullish momentum. This development marked the beginning of a structural shift in market sentiment. The pair has since declined to the 1.38550 support level, which has now been breached, opening the path toward the next major support at 1.34460.
Several technical indicators confirmed the bearish reversal earlier in the year. The Williams %R highlighted an overbought condition at 1.46670, preceding the failure swing. After a brief consolidation, the price dropped below the 30- and 50-period Moving Averages—confirming a bearish reversal. The decline continued until it met the 1.38550 key level.
Historically, the 1.38550 zone has been a pivotal price level. It acted as strong resistance in prior years, with multiple rejections until the eventual breakout in October 2024. Upon returning to this zone, it was temporarily held as support, causing a short-lived bounce. However, the 30-period Moving Average suppressed the bullish attempt, leading to a renewed bearish push and eventual breakdown of the level.
USDCAD Short-Term Trend: Bearish
Price action has cleanly broken below the 1.38550 support zone, followed by a textbook retest. The Williams %R signalled an oversold condition during the pullback, but this served as fuel for continued bearish momentum. With a firmly established bearish structure, the market is now eyeing 1.34460 as the next downside target.
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USDCAD Short-Term Trend: Bearish
