US Dollar Regains Strong Bullish Outlook Following July Meeting Minutes Release

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The US dollar (USD) continued on a bullish trajectory on Thursday after excerpts from July’s meeting minutes showed that the US Federal Reserve plans to uphold its aggressive rate hike campaign longer to further lower inflation. The US Dollar Index (DXY) tapped a new multi-week high of 107.06.

US Dollar Dominates Market Thursday

The booming bullish sentiment around the greenback pushed the British pound (GBP) lower, with the GBP/USD pair briefly dropping below the 1.2000 mark earlier today, its lowest point in over three weeks. Meanwhile, the euro and Japanese yen (JPY) also had a taste of the dollar’s regained strength, with the EUR/USD refreshing a two-day low and the USD/JPY tapping yesterday’s top at 135.43. The yen has pared some of the losses at press time, while the Sterling and the euro struggle to hold against additional declines.

Commenting on the regained dollar strength, Thomas Poullaouec, head of multi-asset solutions APAC at T. Rowe Price, said he sees more bullish moves for the dollar. Poullaouec explained:

“The ‘dollar smile’ theory holds that the currency does well at each end of the global growth continuum, benefiting when relative US growth and rates are higher as well as from being a ‘safe haven’ when global growth is declining – both of which are happening.”

He further explained: “At this point, it appears the only thing that could slow the dollar is a pivot by the Fed, which would likely only come amid signs of much weaker growth in the US or stronger evidence of receding inflation. For now, it looks like the dollar will keep on smiling.”

Money markets have priced in a 40% chance of the Fed delivering a 75 basis-point rate hike in September, as traders expect the bank to continue to raise rates until it peaks around 3.7% in March 2023.