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During the week, Ukraine saw an increase in wheat purchase prices due to declining supply from producers and strong export demand. Feed wheat prices rose by 100-200 UAH/t to 6,800-7,000 UAH/t (156-158 USD/t), while food wheat prices increased by 50-100 UAH/t to 7,600-7,900 UAH/t (173-178 USD/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports.
The success of Ukrainian wheat in an Egyptian tender has boosted demand for milling wheat, which was scarce at the end of the season.
Farmers are busy sowing due to favorable weather conditions and have little time to sell their remaining stock. Meanwhile, rainfall is improving crop conditions and prospects for the next harvest.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy‘s initial forecast suggests a decrease in Ukraine’s wheat harvest in 2024, from 22.2 million tons to 19.2 million tons compared to the previous year.
In the 2023/24 marketing year, Ukraine exported 15 million tons of wheat, including 1.17 million tons in April (0.65 million tons from April 1-17, 2023). The USDA has raised its export forecast from 16 million to 17.5 million tons.
The global market is flooded with inexpensive Russian wheat, offered at 210 USD/t FOB, while European wheat is priced at 217-220 USD/t FOB, and American wheat at 220 USD/t FOB.In the first half of April, Russia exported 2.37 million tons of wheat (against a forecast of 4.6 million tons in April), which aligns with March’s export figures.
As of April 11, U.S. wheat exports in the 2023/24 marketing year totaled 15.9 million tons, marking a 9.2% decrease from last year. To meet the USDA’s forecast of 19.3 million tons by the end of the season, the U.S. needs to ship another 3.4 million tons or 480,000 tons per week.
In the United States, 55% of winter wheat crops are rated in good or excellent condition, marking the best performance since 2020. The sowing rate of spring wheat is also higher than last year. Over the next 1-2 weeks, precipitation and temperatures are expected to be above normal, which will aid in sowing and crop development.
Experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) predict that global wheat production will decrease to 798 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year. Ending stocks are expected to decline to 259 million tonnes, down from 262 million tonnes in the current season.
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