‎TONUSD Anticipates Bearish with Oversold Signals and Retracement Potential

‎Market Analysis- September 25

‎TONUSD continues to follow its bearish trajectory, though oversold conditions hint at a possible corrective bounce before the broader downtrend resumes.

‎TONUSD Key Levels

‎Support Levels: $2.1300, $1.3170
‎Resistance Levels: $3.1000, $3.9110

‎TONUSD Long-Term Trend: Bearish

‎TONCOIN has reestablished its bearish momentum after a prolonged battle between buyers and sellers. Price initially trended downward before buyers attempted a bullish reversal around March 2025, driving the market into a temporary rally. This bullish effort extended into a consolidation phase from April through late August 2025 as bulls struggled to sustain upward pressure.

‎The shift came in September 2025, when price experienced a sharp decline that confirmed rejection from the $3.1000 supply level. This decisive drop reinforced the prevailing bearish structure and signaled renewed seller dominance as the market respected the long-term descending trendline.

‎Currently, TONUSD is approaching the $2.1200 demand level, with the daily RSI deep in oversold territory. While this suggests the possibility of a bullish correction, such momentum is expected to remain short-lived, likely retesting the $3.1000 supply zone before the larger bearish trend continues.

‎TONUSD Medium-Term Trend: Bearish

‎On the 4-hour chart, the bearish drop has reshaped market structure with a significant bearish candle, leaving a Fair Value Gap (FVG) in its path. This inefficiency in price action increases the probability of a corrective move to fill the gap before sellers regain control.
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‎The 4-hour RSI supports this outlook, as it signals oversold conditions that often precede temporary bullish rallies. Any short-term upside is expected to be corrective in nature, targeting the FVG, after which the broader bearish trend is likely to resume in alignment with higher timeframes.

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