Pound Volatility Continues, Dollar Rebound Slows

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The exceptional volatility of the pound sterling continued as traders became more optimistic about the Brexit trade deal. But upside potential remains limited as nothing gets done until everything is done. Markets are also mixed, as the positive impact of the US fiscal stimulus is offset by concerns over a new strain of coronavirus.

Today, the economic calendar continues to glow with the final Q3 UK and US GDP data. But this “old” data is unlikely to give the markets new inspiration.

Technically, the dollar’s rebound quickly stopped overnight. However, at the moment, we do not expect the recent downtrend to resume. EUR/USD is likely to be capped below the short-term top 1.2272, AUD/USD will also be below the short-term top 0.7639.

Likewise, we do not yet expect a breakout to the upside in yen crosses such as EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY.

Sterling Bounces on New UK Fisheries Proposal for EU
GBP recovered overnight after reports that the UK has made a new proposal for fishing rights that could finally reach an agreement with the EU. The UK has demanded that the EU cut the catch in its waters by 60%. In the new proposal, this percentage of reduction was reduced to 35%. This is much closer to the EU’s target of 25%.

Also, the UK will agree to a five-year phase-out period for the new agreements, rather than seven. Initially, the EU took 10 years to adapt, while the UK took three.

Also, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman confirmed that the Brexit transition period will end on December 31. “We have already said that we will need to ratify any agreement before January 1. The leader of the chamber made it clear that we will recall the parliament to give the deputies the right to vote on the necessary legislation,” he added.