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The sudden rise in the pair came after the UK economy partially reopened today. This includes open areas in pubs and restaurants, barbershops, gyms, and minor stores that have opened for the first time in months.
Investors have taken note of the sustainability of economic growth as the country entered the next phase of its coronavirus roadmap. Enthusiasm elevated the cable and increased the productivity of the pair.
However, the British Prime Minister advised people to behave “responsibly” in the remaining time until fears about a pandemic are gone. Moving on, black clouds of political uncertainty amid renewed calls for a repeat referendum on Scottish independence and structural resistance to Brexit continued to haunt the pound sterling.
The intraday bias in the GBP/USD pair turned neutral as it received support from 1.3669 and recovered. Some consolidation is possible, but the risk remains a downside as long as resistance at 1.3917 is held. The breakout of 1.3668/9 will resume the correction from 1.4240 to 1.3482 of the key resistance turned into support. However, a solid break at 1.3917 would indicate the completion of the correction and lead to a stronger advance towards the 1.4000 resistance first.
Pound Gains on Dollar’s Weakness
The weak tone associated with US Treasury yields has held back the strong gains in the US dollar, at least for the time being. This, in turn, helped the GBP/USD pair bounce back from the 100-day moving average support in the 1.3670-65 region. However, a combination of factors could deter bulls from aggressive rates and limit upside potential for majors.
On the other hand, a slight deterioration in global risk sentiment and upbeat comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell should continue to support demand for the safe dollar. News that one of Iran’s nuclear facilities was hit by a terrorist attack has diminished investor appetite for perceived riskier assets and benefited traditional safe assets, including the US dollar.
The pound has benefited from a new phase of economic reopening in the UK as the country reopens pubs, restaurants, and more generally minor retail stores in the absence of another catalyst. The UK is to publish on Tuesday the March trade balance and February industrial production, which, according to the latest forecasts, will rise by 0.5% m/m. The UK will also publish the gross domestic product for February, forecast at 0.6% m/m. compared to -2.9% in January.
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