Pound Sterling Rises As Euro and Swiss Franc Fall

The pound sterling is currently the stronger currency, aided by buying against other European majors. The Kiwi is firmer as well, awaiting the RBNZ rate hike tomorrow, followed by the Dollar. The Swiss Franc, Yen, and Euro, on the other hand, are the softer currencies. After an unremarkable RBA decision earlier in the day, the Australian dollar is mixed. Today’s market mood is calm, with European indexes trading slightly higher and US futures indicating a recovery However, the overall direction is still a bit hazy.

The Eurozone PPI rose 1.1% month-on-month in August and 13.4% year-on-year. Industrial producer prices in the energy industry rose 2.0% month-on-month, intermediate products rose 1.4% month-on-month, capital goods rose 0.5% month-on-month, consumer durables rose 0.3% month-on-month, and non-durable consumer goods rose 0.2% month-on-month. The total industrial prices excluding energy rose by 0.7% month-on-month.

The EU PPI rose 1.1% month-on-month and 13.5% year-on-year. Bulgaria (+4.2%), Denmark (+3.1%), and Latvia (+2.6%) had the highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices, while only Ireland (-4.1%) and Malta (-0.1%).

The Eurozone PMI service industry PMI was finally 56.4, down from 59.0 in August. The final PMI composite index was 56.2, which was lower than August’s 59.0. From the perspective of some member states, Ireland’s PMI composite index ended up at 61.5, Spain at 57.0, Italy at 56.6, Germany at 55.4, and France at 55.3.

Chris Williamson, the Chief business economist at IHS Markit, said: “The current economic situation in the Eurozone is an unpopular combination of rising price pressures but slowing growth. Both are related to supply shortages, especially in manufacturing. The decline in its output growth is greater than that of the services sector. The growth trajectory has slowed. Business confidence has fallen to its lowest level since February, further increasing the downside risks to the outlook.”

Pound Sterling Gains on Predictions of a Rate Hike by the BoE

The pound sterling has shaken off the bearish tone that sent the pair descending in late September, as investors turn their attention away from the UK’s fuel shortages and supply chain restrictions and toward expectations that the Bank of England will be the first major central bank to raise interest rates since the COVID-19 crisis.

The recent rebound is corrective, and the pair is expected to be capped at 1.3658/75 shortly. The 13-day exponential average and price resistance at 1.3658/75, which ideally still caps, remain as resistance. A close above this level would signal that the recovery can continue to the recent reaction high and 55-day average around 1.3752/75, which appears to be more difficult resistance.