Post ECB Meeting, EURO Stays Higher As Dollar Returns Lower on GDP Miss
Login

Post ECB Meeting, EURO Stays Higher As Dollar Returns Lower on GDP Miss

Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Article Rating:
Based on 1 vote
Login to rate this article.

Azeez Mustapha

Updated:

The outcome of the ECB meeting was essential as expected. Policymakers admitted that inflation was higher than expected, but they minimized the need to raise rates sooner. All monetary policy measures remained unchanged, with the main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate, and deposit rate all remaining unchanged at 0%, 0.25 percent, and -0.5 percent, respectively. The PEPP has progressed as planned and is expected to be completed in March 2022. Following the end of the PEPP in March 2022, the December meeting will see updated economic predictions and a formal announcement of the asset acquisition plan.

As ranging trading persists, major pairings and crosses have remained trapped within yesterday’s range. The ECB’s press conference looks to have raised the euro somewhat, but there is no follow-through purchasing. The dollar is also somewhat weaker after the release of worse-than-expected Q3 GDP statistics. With an eye on broader risk sentiment, commodities currencies are the softer ones.

Following the conference, the EURUSD surged higher. While some of this can be ascribed to USD weakening following poor GDP statistics, the market does not appear to be impressed by the ECB’s inflation forecast. Indeed, according to the most recent data, German inflation jumped to +4.5 percent y/y in October, the most in over three decades, up from +4.1 percent the month before. This was higher than the consensus of +4.4 percent.

In terms of technicals, the Euro would be back in the spotlight for the rest of the week. The rebound from 1.1523 will be resumed if the minor resistance of 1.1668 is broken. A break of the minor resistance level of 0.8467 in the EUR/GBP suggests a short-term bottoming at 0.8401. In the EUR/AUD, a breach of minor resistance around 1.5598 will also signal a short-term bottoming at 1.5393. If all of these levels are broken, the Euro will be on the verge of mounting a broad-based near-term rebound.

ECB Maintains Stance, Continues PEPP at a Slower Pace

As expected, the ECB maintained its monetary policy steady. The marginal lending facility and deposit facility interest rates will stay at 0.00 percent, 0.25 percent, and -0.50 percent, respectively. The forecast remains unchanged.

“The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their current or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching two percent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the remainder of the projection horizon, and it judges that realized progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilizing at two percent over the medium term,” the statement reads. This could potentially indicate a brief spell of considerably above-target inflation.”

PEPP purchases will continue until at least the end of March 2022, with a total outlay of EUR 1850B. Net asset acquisitions will continue to be “moderately slower” than in Q2 and Q3. Purchases of APPs will also continue at a monthly rate of EUR 20 billion.

  • Broker
  • Benefits
  • Min Deposit
  • Score
  • Visit Broker
  • Award-winning Cryptocurrency trading platform
  • $100 minimum deposit,
  • FCA & Cysec regulated
$100 Min Deposit
9.8
  • 20% welcome bonus of upto $10,000
  • Minimum deposit $100
  • Verify your account before the bonus is credited
$100 Min Deposit
9
  • Over 100 different financial products
  • Invest from as little as $10
  • Same-day withdrawal is possible
$250 Min Deposit
9.8
  • The Lowest Trading Costs
  • 50% Welcome Bonus
  • Award-winning 24 Hour Support
$50 Min Deposit
9
  • Fund Moneta Markets account with a minimum of $250
  • Opt in using the form to claim your 50% deposit bonus
$250 Min Deposit
9

Learn to Trade

Never Miss A Trade Again

step 1
Signal Notification

Real-time signal notifications whenever a signal is opened, closes or Updated

step 2
Get Alerts

Immediate alerts to your email and mobile phone.

step 3
Entry Price Levels

Entry price level for every signal Just choose one of our Top Brokers in the list above to get all this free.

Share with other traders!

telegram
Telegram
forex
Forex
crypto
Crypto
algo
Algo
news
News