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Oil prices climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Monday, driven by hopes of rising summer fuel demand despite a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates.
The Fed raised rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to control inflation, increasing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.
Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar can decrease oil demand by making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Brent futures rose $2.01, or 2.5%, to settle at $81.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased $2.21, or 2.9%, to settle at $77.74, marking the highest close for both benchmarks since May 30.
“Futures are higher as expectations of summer demand support prices, despite a less optimistic broader macro landscape,” analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates noted.
Goldman Sachs analysts forecast Brent crude to rise to $86 a barrel in the third quarter, citing strong summer transport demand that will push the oil market into a third-quarter deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar (.DXY) reached a four-week high against a basket of other currencies as the euro fell sharply.
This decline was due to political uncertainty in Europe, following gains by far-right parties in the European Parliament elections, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap national election.
Last week, oil experienced a third consecutive weekly loss amid concerns that OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, will unwind some production cuts from October, increasing supply.
Despite the cuts, oil inventories have risen, with U.S. crude and gasoline stocks increasing in the latest week. Energy consultancy FGE also anticipates an oil rally, expecting prices to reach the mid-$80s in the third quarter.
Looking to the Future
Investors are now focused on the upcoming release of May’s U.S. consumer price index data on Wednesday, seeking clues about when the Federal Reserve might begin lowering interest rates.
Additionally, the market is anticipating the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting, also concluding on Wednesday, where it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged.
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