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Market Analysis – April 11
NZDUSD declines as It Targets Lower Liquidity Levels. Since mid-January 2024, there has been a shift in market structure leading to a bearish trend with consecutive lower lows. Following the recent break of the bearish structure, prices are declining to clear sell-side liquidity below the market.
NZDUSD Key Levels
Demand Zones: 0.58700, 0.57800
Supply Zones: 0.60480, 0.62080
NZDUSD Long-Term Trend: Bearish
Following a brief period of consolidation from late January 2024 to mid-March 2024, the price broke the market structure bearishly, resuming its downward trend. The price dropped sharply in an attempt to hit sell-side liquidity, but sellers’ strength waned, preventing them from taking out the liquidity. Subsequently, the price started to rise in a retracement, seeking to attract enough buy-side liquidity to support further selling in the market.
As the price retraces, it is expected to slightly breach the 0.60480 supply level to take out liquidity and ultimately reach the order block to fill sell orders. The Relative Strength Index indicates that the price is heading towards the overbought region, which aligns with the price rise into the order block. Once the market reaches the order block, it is anticipated to decline, taking out sell-side liquidity and eventually breaching the 0.58700 demand level.
NZDUSD Short-Term Trend: Bullish
The 4-hour timeframe indicates a potential short-term uptrend as it has breached the bearish trend line resistance, suggesting a bullish trend may be forming. The Moving Average also supports a bullish outlook, with the current price above its mark. However, this bullish movement is seen as a retracement on the daily timeframe, and it is anticipated to be rejected at the order block, continuing its overall bearish trend.
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