Nasdaq 100 Gets Thrown Into Directionless Bias as “September” Volatility Sets In

After three consecutive sessions of intense selling, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) seemed to finally get a breather in yesterday’s session. However, that didn’t seem to last long. The bounce witnessed yesterday cut across the S&P 500, global equities, high-yield fixed incomes, commodities, and several other industries.

That said, investors are wary about the current September trade season and the erratic volatility and liquidity it brings. This heightened volatility increases the risk of abrupt directional changes in the markets.

While we can see the prevailing effects of the “season” in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Apple (NASDAQ: APPL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), other top tech players, Nasdaq 100’s -11% decline through Tuesday followed by the sudden 3% recovery yesterday, followed by yet another wipeout. This makes it difficult to pinpoint the market’s directional bias.

This has thrown further uncertainty and worry over the prospects of a V-shaped global economic recovery. Some analysts worry that the risk tone of the season could cause the floor under the equities industry to cave.

Furthermore, the recent development in the US Congress of a “slimmed-down” fiscal stimulus package failing to get out of the Senate has bolstered the budding risk-off sentiment.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — September 11

NDX Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: 11307, 11650, and 11890.

Demand Levels: 11050, 10840, and 10520.

The NDX has been thrown into a state of uncertainty since Tuesday and has remained in a wide consolidation range between 11650 and 11050. The index appears to have broken out of our longstanding ascending channel and is struggling with the 11050 support level.

The index has to fight to stay above this support area in the near-term so it doesn’t fall to the 10840-500 support area. Also, given the uncertainty of the times, it is not clear what the NDX will do next.

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