Nasdaq 100 Could Be Seeing Significant Slowdown In Volatility as the Summer Rolls In

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) climbed higher on Monday with the Dow Jones (DJIA) and S&P 500 (SPX) not far behind. The three major US indices have all recorded outstanding rallies in the past few weeks, however, it appears as though the momentum is starting to slow down as the impending market risk tone might diminish trading activities. This means that the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and the S&P 500 are expected to see a stall or modest decline in their prices in the near-term.

Usually, the markets are very calm in August and other months in the summer. While the start of the season was largely dominated by the Coronavirus crisis-induced volatility, recent price actions indicate that longer-term trends have re-emerged as the markets have been fairly quiet in August—except for last Tuesday. Furthermore, the upcoming FOMC minutes report might suppress any significant price movement this week.

There are certain factors in the market today responsible for the slowdown in price action. However, this is not to say that the fundamental factors that influenced strong market runs in the past have suddenly ‘disappeared.’ Regardless the charts still show that the bull trend is still intact.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — August 18

NDX Major Bias: Bullish

Supply Levels: 11307, 11400, and 11500.

Demand Levels: 11150, 11068, and 10895.

The NDX continues to struggle with the 11307 resistance despite favorable market conditions. Regardless, we expect to see a clean break above that line and new record highs in the near-term. A break above that level could quickly send NDX to 11400 before any correction will be seen.

On the flip side, a fall from this level would be strongly supported around the 11068 area. A sustained fall below this level appears unlikely at this point.

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