Gold Price Analysis — August 31

Gold (XAU/USD) has climbed higher on Monday despite the insufficient volatility in the market as a result of the U.K. bank holiday.

Some bearish comments came from the Fed today after Bostic said that economic recovery is happening but at a slow pace. Also, Fed’s Clarida shed more light on the Fed’s stance noting that “unemployment rate by itself and in the absence of inflation will not be a sufficient trigger for a rate hike.” If this stance remains unchanged at the Fed meeting in September, then gold could see further gains.

Meanwhile, the early optimism over the goodish Chinese PMI data for August has faded from the market rather quickly. This can be seen in the sharp turnaround in the global risk appetite, which has bolstered demand for gold in the near-term. The anti-risk sentiment was strengthened by a slight intraday pullback in the US Treasury bond yields.

However, despite the favorable conditions, the uptick seen in gold lacked the strength to follow-through, and bulls are not yet convinced. That said, it would be wise to wait for a strong break above the $1977 supply region before expecting any significant bull rally.

Gold (XAU) Value Forecast — August 31

XAU/USD Major Bias: Sideways

Supply Levels: $1977, $1983, and $2000

Demand Levels: $1940, $1923, and $1909

Gold remained well within our pivot region ($1983-60) as stipulated in this morning’s analysis. Meanwhile, it is appearing more and more likely that bulls, rather than bears, will win this bout. That said, a bullish breakout is to be expected in the near-term as upwards appears to be the “path of least resistance” currently.

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