Global Corn Prices Hold Steady as Ukraine Struggles with Supply Issues

Corn prices in Ukraine have risen to match those of feed wheat this week due to limited producer supply and forecasts of reduced yields.

Since the start of the week, export prices for corn destined for the Black Sea ports increased by $3-5 per ton, reaching $180-185 per ton, or 8350-8500 UAH per ton. For December deliveries, traders are now offering $188-189 per ton.

Corn Supply and Demand Outlook

In the 2023/24 marketing year, the main buyers of Ukrainian corn have been Spain, China, and Egypt. However, this year’s corn harvest in the EU, particularly in Spain, has shown slight improvement, which is expected to reduce import needs.
Despite this, demand for Ukrainian corn remains robust, driven by forecasts of a 30% drop in Ukraine’s exports and a reduced Russian corn harvest.

Ukrainian corn on a CPT-port basis is currently trading $20 per ton higher than December futures in Chicago, which could limit further price increases. Additionally, the U.S. is on track to harvest a near-record corn crop this year, applying further pressure on prices.

Corn Futures and Market Trends

December corn futures in Chicago dropped by 2% this week to $159.4 per ton, though they are still up 1% for the month, as the market awaits the updated USDA forecast, set to be released on September 12.

In the 2024/25 marketing year, as of September 8, the EU has increased corn imports by 20% compared to last season, reaching 3.85 million tons, with 60% of that—2.3 million tons—supplied by Ukraine. Spain and the Netherlands are leading importers this season, with 1.28 million tons and 788,000 tons, respectively.
Meanwhile, November corn futures on the Paris stock exchange fell by 0.5% to €202.75 per ton ($223.4 per ton), maintaining last month’s levels despite lower harvest forecasts in the EU and a strong start to imports this season.

Traders are anticipating reduced global corn production and stock estimates in the upcoming USDA report, which could provide support for prices.

Dry and hot weather conditions in Brazil are delaying the sowing of the first corn crop and soybeans. As a result, corn prices could see a rebound in October and November as the effects of delayed planting begin to influence the market.

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