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Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm jobs report comes out at a somewhat awkward time; For the first time in six years, the April employment report falls on Good Friday, which means many major markets will be closed.
As a result, readers who trade the forex or bond markets at their desks may see less liquidity than usual and the post-release movement may stop earlier than usual as traders who watch the markets seem to leave early to enjoy a long duty holiday weekend.
Interestingly, economists expect strong numbers: job growth is expected at 652,000 (a potential six-month high), and the unemployment rate will fall 2 ticks to 6.0%. At the same time, it is expected that the always important indicator of the average hourly profit will rise by only 0.1% m / m, which suggests that inflationary pressures are still far away.
Jobless Rate Undoubtedly Overstated
On the surface, the above results could be another boon for the US economy and for the Biden presidency as eurozone countries struggle to meet their vaccine goals. On the other hand, the participation rate has remained stable since July, despite the upward trend in the number of jobs, which is likely to provide some warning that misclassification errors could underestimate real unemployment rates.
It is likely that millions of people are not actively looking for work and therefore are not considered unemployed, as uncertainty about the development of the virus, the disappearance of job opportunities, and virtual learning have forced some parents to stay at home, probably drove this group of people out of the workforce.
Therefore, the overall unemployment rate may not be a complete benchmark for the trajectory of the labor market, partly explaining the Fed’s decision to keep accommodative policies at current levels until they achieve their goal of full employment.
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